A new report is warning that the combined war casualties in the nearly four-year Russia-Ukraine war could hit 2 million by spring 2026. The number includes soldiers killed, injured or missing on both sides of the conflict.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report on Tuesday predicting the grim milestone. CSIS states that Russia suffered 1.2 million casualties, including 325,000 troop deaths, between February 2022 and December 2025. It estimates that Ukraine suffered between 500,000 to 600,000 casualties, including 140,000 troop deaths. CSIS estimates that the current combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could be as high as 1.8 million.
Getting a clear picture of the fatalities and casualties suffered on both sides is not easy as neither Moscow nor Kyiv gives timely data on military losses, according to The Associated Press, which noted that the two countries are also simultaneously focused on amplifying each other’s casualties. Russia has publicly acknowledged the deaths of just over 6,000 soldiers, the AP reported.
The outlet noted that activists and independent journalists have said that reports of military losses have been repressed in Russian media.
‘Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power,’ the report reads.
‘No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II,’ the report notes.
Russian battlefield casualties and fatalities have been ‘significantly higher’ than Ukraine’s, according to the report.
CSIS estimates the ratio to be roughly 2.5:1 or 2:1. CSIS points to several reasons for the high Russian casualties and fatalities, including the country’s ‘failure to effectively conduct combined arms and joint warfare, poor tactics and training, corruption, low morale and Ukraine’s effective defense-in-depth strategy in a war that favors the defense.’ The report also states that Russia has accepted taking high casualties as part of its strategy.
‘Russia’s attrition strategy has accepted the costs of high casualties in hopes of eventually wearing down Ukraine’s military and society,’ CSIS states in its report.
In addition to its high casualty rate, Russia has also been advancing ‘remarkably slowly,’ according to the report. CSIS stated in its report that Russian forces had advanced at an average rate of 15 to 70 meters (49 to 230 feet) per day in its most prominent offenses since seizing the military initiative in January 2024. The authors of the report say Russia’s pace is ‘slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century.’
The report comes less than one month before the fourth anniversary of Russia invading Ukraine. Despite international mediators, including the U.S., making attempts to end the war, it has persisted, with both sides suffering casualties.
On Wednesday, Ukrainian officials said two people were killed during Russian strikes that hit an apartment block on the outskirts of Kyiv, the AP reported. Additionally, at least nine people were injured in separate attacks on the Ukrainian cities of Odesa and Kryvyi Rih.
Representatives for Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. recently met in the United Arab Emirates for the first trilateral talks since 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a post on X that the ‘conversations were constructive.’
‘A lot was discussed, and it is important that the conversations were constructive,’ he wrote on X, noting the delegations could have further meetings as early as next week. ‘As a result of the meetings held over these days, all sides agreed to report back in their capitals on each aspect of the negotiations and to coordinate further steps with their leaders.’
Fox News Digital reached out to Russia and Ukraine’s foreign affairs ministries.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
